Russian invasion of Ukraine discussion

[ChattanoogaPhil]

Good real time intel from Willy. Sharp photos of the leopard tanks trashed etc, a good portion appear recoverable, how one sided the info is currently (Ukes staying quiet while Russians amping up noise), insider report from a commander on western failures for Ukes to succeed, etc. It does seem like we (west/US/NATO) send just enough gear to be a real PITA for the Russians, not enough and type, to win decisively.

Comments that stuck out— Just the beginning of counter offensive but… Ukraine tripped on the start line. Ukraine incompetence from lack of training. Fault Western corruption.

Yes, support for Ukraine has lacked hardware that would risk pushing Putin to respond with much beyond a convention ground game. Seems like they want Ukraine to win but fearful of what might happen if Putin is faced with losing.

[mack7.62]

Looks like Lukashenko was ready to attack Ukraine in Dec 2022 but the Army said nah.

Lew Anno Suport #Ukraine 24/2-22
@anno1540
Lukashenko was ready in December 2022 to give the order to start the invasion of Ukraine, but failed to persuade the army

In December, all combat-ready units of the army of the Republic of Belarus were at the border and began to ask many questions to the command, they say, why did the Ukrainian people suddenly become an enemy.

“For almost a week, the KGB blackmailed, frightened, talked to the military – it did nothing. And then they reported to the top leadership that the Belarusian army was not ready to conduct hostilities in Ukraine,” said Valery Sakhashchik, founder of the Belarusian airborne assault group as part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine .
https://espreso.tv/rezhim-lukashenka...u-tikhanovskoi

[ChattanoogaPhil]

Lukashenko is supposed to be getting his tactical nukes set up in the next few weeks.

[mack7.62]

Those will be Putin's nukes based in Belarus, no way will Lukashenko have any control of them.

[The Dumb Gun Collector]

I think Lukashenko is to Putin what Franco was to Hitler. He appreciates the help, but he ain't dumb enough to get involved in this shitshow.

[mack7.62]

So looks like Ukraine's strategy is to go for shallow penetrations across a wide front to suck Russian reserves out of hiding and into artillery range.

david D.
@secretsqrl123
·
2h
just got off the phone and computer with 2 trusted former intel people. some of the take aways we got that we can openly talk about (that is known) is that as predicted ukr is not pushing for a single deep thrust as much as a thrust along the entire line.

we are tracking 3-4 thrusts with more probably coming. this will force ru to use up or shift forces to block all the thrusts. with ukraine probably to launch more than 25 major thrusts in the next few days. this will force ru to block every one or they may have a breakthrough.

every time ru blocks a thrust they have to bring res forces out of hiding, or from the deep reat and bring them in rang of ukr 155mm guns or himars. once the res forces are used and no more mobile blocking forces are left then the real fun should start.

also the russians will have to use every bit of its artillery. this means that ru and ukr artillery will be going after each other in the open.. and ru guns that are shot out, with less accuracy, less range, and less mobility will probably pay a heavy price.

ukr STILL has the ability for at least 2 brigade sized water crossings, and a brigade sized air assault with about 100 helos with supporting deep artillery to tie down more units.

it looks overall like ru troops (from reports and vid) are starting to break and run. without artillery or armor support facing ukr troops that want payback i cant see russian troops standing their ground. once panic starts its going to be the Crimea 500 IMO.
and yes there will be ukr losses, but ukr will be able to save most of its troops, reform and refight. while russian troops are far more likely to not survive in older soviet vehicles.

[ChattanoogaPhil]

Your argument rests on the assumption delivery volumes transiting Ukraine would decrease, reducing revenue. I don't think this assumption is justified.

Such an 'assumption' was at the center of Nord Stream completion.

Excerpts:

Talk is now focused on the fate of the existing Ukrainian gas transit route after 2019, when the current transit agreement with Russia expires and Nord Stream 2 is scheduled to go online. This comes as German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently acknowledged the importance of keeping gas flowing across Ukraine and of the pipeline project’s political dimension.

But we should not let the debate on Nord Stream 2 shift into simply haggling over a certain level of transit that would make it acceptable for the EU to accept the project. Once Nord Stream 2 is open and Gazprom has the technical capacity to serve its Western European customers without the Ukrainian transmission system, any deal of the sort will be based solely on Russia’s good will, which is hardly an ironclad guarantee.

Supporting Ukrainian independence and helping with its reform process is crucial to the stability of our Continent. Maintaining the Ukrainian transit route after 2019 is certainly paramount to that objective. Cutting it off would mean a harsh blow to the Ukrainian budget, as transit fees account for about 3 percent of GDP. Even more importantly, if Russia can cut off supplies to Ukraine without halting transit to Western Europe, Kiev’s geopolitical situation would become much more vulnerable.

For Russia, circumventing Ukraine is the main geopolitical rationale behind Nord Stream 2. It is highly unlikely Moscow would give up that goal once the pipeline is in place. Maintaining a significant amount of gas transmitted via Ukraine could, and should, be agreed in trilateral talks — but blindly trusting that Gazprom will fulfill its commitments would be naive.


Russia, unfortunately, has a long record of ignoring its own declarations and obligations, especially when it comes to Ukraine...

https://www.politico.eu/article/russ...rad-szymanski/

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[mack7.62]

Power plays going on inside Russia.

(((Tendar)))
@Tendar
This day just keeps on giving.

While the counteroffensive in Ukraine's south is taking shape and smashing Russian army lines, the Russian regime is caught infights of epic proportions. Russian Defense Minister demanded to put PMC Wagner under direct command of the Russian MoD, which the leader, Prigozhin, understandably denies.

#Ukraine #Russia #PMCWagner

[FromMyColdDeadHand]

Why would you clear a mine field with your good crap?

[Averageman]

Why would you clear a mine field with your good crap?

There are better times to clear a minefield also.
I used my Abrams and mineplow to clear a lane in a mine field. We started early in the morning like at the buttcrack of dawn. Two of us, a USMC M60 and my M1A2 Abrams started the breech. He got ahead of me a bit and I believe he was going to fast to keep the plow digging and it skipped, either way the last I saw of them, they were giving First Aid to someone on top of the Turret and their engine was smoking.
When you get your OPORD to breech, part of that order is how far in distance you have to go, then they add a safety zone, then you are supposed to be clear.
When we reached our distance we then were to defend everyone behind us proofing and crossing the breech. We reached our distance + the safety Zone, we lifted the plow and pulled forward to provide the Defence of the Breech, dropped the plow to increase stability and ..BOOM...
Well there goes your day.