Russian invasion of Ukraine discussion

[chuckman]

Good interview from boots on the ground. Interesting comments on the "spoiled" US SOF guys:

LOL, he is a hoot. Interesting take on former Marines, 10th Mtn., and the third group.

[tn1911]

Russia risks becoming ungovernable and descending into chaos

https://www.economist.com/the-world-...ing-into-chaos

The Russian state is failing in the most basic function of all. Far from protecting the lives of its people, it poses the biggest threat to them, by using them as cannon fodder. On September 21st, faced with military defeat on the battleground in Ukraine, Mr Putin ordered a mobilisation of some 300,000 people. Ill trained and ill equipped, their only function is to stand in the way of the advance of the Ukrainian forces. Many are unlikely to be alive this time next year.
“
There is growing concern about Russia’s own ability to survive the war
The mobilisation caused a shock in Russia far greater than the beginning of the war itself. Some of its effects are already visible: recruitment centres were set ablaze, and at least 300,000 people fled abroad (on top of the 300,000 who left in the first weeks of the war). Most of them are young, educated and resourceful. The full impact of their departure on the country’s economy and demographics is yet to show, but social tension is rising.
While urbanites flee, tens of thousands of their poorer compatriots are being rounded up and sent into the trenches. By bringing his “special military operation” home Mr Putin has broken the fragile consensus under which people agreed not to protest against the war in exchange for being left alone. Now they are being told to fight and die for the sake of his regime.
Mr Putin cannot win, but he cannot afford to end the conflict either. He may hope that by making so many people collude in his war, and subjecting them to more of his poisonous, fascist propaganda, he will be able to drag things out. Whether he succeeds, or whether the flow of body bags, coupled with the discontent of the elite, results in his downfall, will determine how many more people will die and how far Russia falls.

Article is behind a paywall, here’s a link to the archive article

https://archive.ph/2022.11.26-161718...ing-into-chaos

[tn1911]

Ukraine Pulled Ex-Soviet Recon Drones Out Of Storage, Added Bombs And Sent Them Hurtling Toward Russia

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=5d2444703348

From videos being posted this AM it looks like the Ukrainians have hit another Russian airbase!

Ukraine drone attack' hits ANOTHER Russian airbase a day after strike damaged two nuclear bombers

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...n-airbase.html

[The Dumb Gun Collector]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/06/busin...rgo/index.html

Well, months ago I predicted the Russians would be doubly screwed when gas prices dropped.oil has dropped 40% since the high in March to just below $75 a barrel. They are in terrible shape because they have some of the worst extraction costs in the industry. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/...mco-ipo-a68132

Basically, they have to make $44 to just pay costs of extraction (who knows how much shipping is). We are now below $75 and Russia was offering India and China $20-40 discounts to play ball. Even the math challenged can see Russia’s problem.

[WillieThom]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/06/busin...rgo/index.html

Well, months ago I predicted the Russians would be doubly screwed when gas prices dropped.oil has dropped 40% since the high in March to just below $75 a barrel. They are in terrible shape because they have some of the worst extraction costs in the industry. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/...mco-ipo-a68132

Basically, they have to make $44 to just pay costs of extraction (who knows how much shipping is). We are now below $75 and Russia was offering India and China $20-40 discounts to play ball. Even the math challenged can see Russia’s problem.

But, but, but…

[Buckaroo]

Interesting article, that is a lot of artillery shells!
"According to a Pentagon fact sheet released at the end of November, the US has sent Ukraine 924,000 155mm artillery rounds to Ukraine since February 24. The US currently makes 14,000 155mm rounds each month, but the Army is set to ramp that up. "Funding is already in place, contracts are underway to basically triple 155mm production," Doug Bush, the assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, told Defense News. "There’s funding on the Hill, in the supplemental, to more than double that again. That would take a period of years."

Bush said that the US wants to increase the amount of ammunition it has to higher than the levels it had before Russia invaded Ukraine. "We want to be able to build our stocks not just where we started the war, but higher. We’re posturing for a pretty ― over a period of three years ― a dramatic increase in conventional artillery ammunition production,” Bush said."
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/a...mmo-production

[FromMyColdDeadHand]

Russian controls roughly 40k sq lies of Ukraine. So, just the Ukrainians, using just US ammo, could have dropped 23 shells per sq mile of occupied territory.

[DG23]

But, but, but…

https://twitter.com/netblocks/status...7Ctwgr%5Etweet

⚠️ Confirmed: Metrics show that #Ukraine's connectivity has been impacted in multiple regions amid new Russian missile attacks on Monday morning, with authorities also implementing emergency shutdowns to relieve the grid 📉

In an interview with the BBC, Volodymyr Zelensky’s wife promised to “endure” despite all difficulties. According to her, her people is willing to continue fighting against the Russians and will not conform until victory is finally achieved. She claims that constant power shortages and heating problems will not be a problem, despite the coming of the harsh Ukrainian winter.

Elena says that 90% of Ukrainians are “ready” to live for “two to three years” without power and heat, adding that “We are ready to endure this (…) We’ve had so many terrible challenges, seen so many victims, so much destruction, that blackouts are not the worst thing to happen to us (…) You know, it is easy to run a marathon when you know how many kilometers there are (…) Sometimes it can be very difficult. But there are some new emotions that help us to hold on”.

Russian people are not anywhere near having to live this way and will not be 'living' this way any time soon.

Time will tell who folds up first.

[C-grunt]

You mean to tell me that citizens living in an active warzone are experiencing hardships? That's crazy!

[BoringGuy45]

https://twitter.com/netblocks/status...7Ctwgr%5Etweet





Russian people are not anywhere near having to live this way and will not be 'living' this way any time soon.

Time will tell who folds up first.

My wife’s Dutch grandparents lived without food or heat for nearly 5 years in Amsterdam under the Nazis. Her grandfather was also part of the resistance and the SS was looking for him. They lived on scraps and burned anything they could for fuel. When people are facing oppression and death, they find miserable situations more tolerable.