Russian invasion of Ukraine discussion

[glocktogo]

You regularly ignore our history and the precedents that WE set during our military 'operations'...




If good for the goose - It is good for the gander.

EXCELLENT video on how hard it is to 'restart' a power grid after any sort of blackout:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOSnQM1Zu4w

So NATO should take the leash off thhose weapons, so that Ukraine can strike the Kremlin directly? Because that's the only reason Russia has any advantage over Ukraine at all right now. They can strike Kiev from the air at will, Ukraine can't strike Moscow at all.

[DG23]

I’m only speculating, but I wonder if they’ll get an updated air defense system more capable of dealing with incoming missiles instead. That would also add a layer of complexity to the air war. Dunno, just speculating out loud.

They already received NASAMS and IRIS-T's.

How is all that working out for them?

How much would it cost to shoot down say 10 missiles vs what those 10 missiles cost to produce?

What if half of those 10 missiles are (very inexpensive) decoys?

We better get busy printing more dollars...



https://www-nytimes-com.cdn.ampproje...sanctions.html

Dec. 5, 2022

Some of the cruise missiles that Russia launched at Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure in late November were manufactured months after the West imposed sanctions intended to deprive Moscow of the components needed to make those munitions, according to a weapons research group.

Experts examined remnants of Kh-101 cruise missiles found in Kyiv, the capital, after an attack on Nov. 23 that knocked out electricity and shut down water systems in large areas of the country. One of the missiles was made this summer, and another was completed after September, markings on the weapons show, according to a report released by the investigators on Monday.

That Russia has continued to make advanced guided missiles like the Kh-101 suggests that it has found ways to acquire semiconductors and other matériel despite the sanctions or that it had significant stockpiles of the components before the war began, one of the researchers said.

The findings are among the most recent by Conflict Armament Research, an independent group based in Britain that identifies and tracks weapons and ammunition used in wars.

Video about the Kh-101 (notice dates in video and how long it has been in production):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xaqez-coGE

Guessing that if they have been making those for that long they have all the facilities in place for it to not to be that hard for them to do... Also guessing that if those production lines are already in place that removing some critical parts intended to make it an actual warhead vs simply a relatively cheap decoy would not be that difficult.

They could easily cost us a fortune in defense (defense stuff sent to ukraine) here while expending a minimal in armament costs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxZS_Zrd5NM

[1168]

How is all that working out for them?

How much would it cost to shoot down say 10 missiles vs what those 10 missiles cost to produce?

Not terribly. They have a shootdown rate between 40% and 60%. Could be better, could be worse. There’s a lot of eyes on the airfields that host the air-launched missiles, so a greater ability to directly attack those aircraft between takeoff and launch would probably have an effect. Shooting down aircraft is way out of my expertise, so I could be wrong about that.

Defending against incoming missiles has a non-combatant human lives saved metric that has to fit onto the cost vs cost matrix. But of course, you don’t care about that. You look at this like a Notre Dame football fan. (No offense intended toward them). People are dying, dude. War is hell.

[mack7.62]

I don't know DG but I suspect you can buy quite a few AA missiles for $13 mil.

http://military-today.com/missiles/kh_101.htm

Despite sanctions imposed on Russia production of the Kh-101 continues. Ukrainians are shooting down Kh-101 missiles that were produced after the beginning of invasion. It means that Russian managed to acquire all foreign components required to produce these missiles. Some sources report that production pace is 15-20 missiles per month.

Unit price of the Kh-101 is around $13 million.



And then there is this, the old magic BB:

Russian Kh-101 cruise missile downed with machine gun fire

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-kh-10...195000331.html

[1168]

I don't know DG but I suspect you can buy quite a few AA missiles for $13 mil.

http://military-today.com/missiles/kh_101.htm

Despite sanctions imposed on Russia production of the Kh-101 continues. Ukrainians are shooting down Kh-101 missiles that were produced after the beginning of invasion. It means that Russian managed to acquire all foreign components required to produce these missiles. Some sources report that production pace is 15-20 missiles per month.

Unit price of the Kh-101 is around $13 million.



And then there is this:

Russian Kh-101 cruise missile downed with machine gun fire

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-kh-10...195000331.html

The Kh-101 is basically an airplane, so it makes sense that production is slow and costly. I’ve seen claims of much lower production pace than that, even. There are also relatively minor additional costs beyond production that are associated with each launch. Some dude has to pre-fly the route on a simulator and put that shit on a thumbdrive, which has to be physically delivered to the airfield, which seems a bit laborious. Obviously it has to be loaded. But, most significantly, they have to burn airframe hours, and they’ve been having a hard time with that for decades. I’d be really curious to see what their maintenance and pilot hours look like right now. Deferred maintenance has often been a problem.

[WillBrink]

So NATO should take the leash off thhose weapons, so that Ukraine can strike the Kremlin directly? Because that's the only reason Russia has any advantage over Ukraine at all right now. They can strike Kiev from the air at will, Ukraine can't strike Moscow at all.

Ukraine is now sending drones a few hundred miles into Russia now and attacking airbases and such, so they are taking it to the Russians on their own soil now it appears.

[utahjeepr]

Ukraine is now sending drones a few hundred miles into Russia now and attacking airbases and such, so they are taking it to the Russians on their own soil now it appears.

I also hear the Ukes are working to field their own long range munitions. Built "in house" so to speak. No idea what thier realistic production capabilities are though.

If the Ukrainians can start inflicting real damage to targets of value inside Russia that could be a big move for them.

[1168]

I also hear the Ukes are working to field their own long range munitions. Built "in house" so to speak. No idea what thier realistic production capabilities are though.

If the Ukrainians can start inflicting real damage to targets of value inside Russia that could be a big move for them.

Could also be a big problem. Russian doctrine allows for “first” use of nuclear weapons in previously conventional conflicts if the homeland is threatened, I believe. Would they do it? I dunno, but I think the possibility exists.

[Diamondback]

Could also be a big problem. Russian doctrine allows for “first” use of nuclear weapons in previously conventional conflicts if the homeland is threatened, I believe. Would they do it? I dunno, but I think the possibility exists.

So they're fine with threatening everybody ELSE's homelands but don't you dare threaten theirs in return? Suck dogshit, Ivan... #FJBandFVP

[1168]

So they're fine with threatening everybody ELSE's homelands but don't you dare threaten theirs in return? Suck dogshit, Ivan... #FJBandFVP

Always has been.