Russian invasion of Ukraine discussion

[WillBrink]

Solid interview with a legit war dog who has been in the stuff all over the globe it sounds like. His take and experience in Ukraine is worth a view for sure. Ukraine is now the lightening rod for professional soldiers from all over the world who are meat eaters that will fight to the end who hate Russians, and rightly so. Estimated 20k foreign fighters so far and counting. Lots of Georgian's who are hardened trained and hate Russians. What % are hardened combat vets and well trained soldiers, and which are wanna be cannon fodder, I can't say. I do know if say 50% are the former, and being equipped with quality gear, ongoing western intel, etc, the Russians are going to lose a lot of men and gear, possibly more then they can sustain.

The bottom line here is, the Russians want to make it last as long as possible expecting the west to lose it's interest and support, and they're not wrong either. We have a real bad habit of doing that when the next shiny ball arrives, new admins, change in economy, etc. The Russians will dig in for the winter and try and win on attrition now, and wait for the NATO, US in particular, to lose interest and $ support, and put pressure on Ukraine to settle for the lost territories.

Finally, this feels different to me and perhaps the NATO nations, US in particular, will maintain the support and interest, but much of that depends on public support, and for that, they have to show progress by Ukraine. I'd say 6 months is the window for that.

I do think if it becomes a true war of attrition and goes beyond 6m-1y, the Russians will "win." I put win in quotes because win or lose militarily, they have lost and set the country back 50-70 years.

[DG23]

Finally, this feels different to me and perhaps the NATO nations, US in particular, will maintain the support and interest, but much of that depends on public support, and for that, they have to show progress by Ukraine. I'd say 6 months is the window for that.

I do think if it becomes a true war of attrition and goes beyond 6m-1y, the Russians will "win." I put win in quotes because win or lose militarily, they have lost and set the country back 50-70 years.

Consider how many countries have 'declined' on our sanctions routine here and not only went right on as normal but some - greatly increased their trade ties and cooperation with Russia...

Russia increasing their trade ties elsewhere (and devoting the time / money to get that infrastructure in place to make that trade easier) makes them weaker how?

Nord Stream may have got nipped but Power of Siberia will replace it. Most likely be prioritized and expanded now thanks to those sanctions. Soooo, China gets their stuff cheaper and the EU gets to pay more...

Western sanctions imposed on Moscow have failed to make a dent in Russia’s economy and ultimately only hurt Europeans, former Austrian Vice-Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache has said on Saturday. He also accused EU policymakers of turning a blind eye to the deadly fighting in Donbass, which he said served as a prelude to the current conflict for many years.

Speaking at a pro-neutrality rally in Vienna, which was also a protest against sanctions on Russia, Strache (former Austrian vice-chancellor) claimed that Austria’s decision to join the restrictions had turned out to be a self-inflicted wound. “Austria has shown Europe how the sanctions are damaging itself,” he said, telling his audience that the measures have caused soaring electricity and gas prices, with more and more people feeling the impact.

“If it goes on like this, next year in March and April we will face mass insolvencies and bankruptcies,” he warned, calling the possibility “damn dangerous.”

If the crisis is exacerbated and more people get desperate, “this could bring a dangerous development in the form of social tensions that we all do not want,” the former vice-chancellor added.

At the same time, Strache continued, the restrictions have failed to undermine the Russian economy. According to him, “this year, the Russians have doubled [their] business,” raking in $220 billion in revenue.

I tend to agree with everything he said there.

If all of the countries (many of which are not vassal states of ours) that that said 'screw you' to the sanctions and are getting a discount now while we pay more - That means we are 'winning' how???

We killed an established pipeline sending the EU cheap (Russian) energy and forced Russia to work harder on a different pipeline sending that same cheap energy to China helps us how???

[WillBrink]

Consider how many countries have 'declined' on our sanctions routine here and not only went right on as normal but some - greatly increased their trade ties and cooperation with Russia...

How many? Not many, and they are either expected to or not relavant. The only one that I find disappointing is Israel. We should tell them to get with the program or that billions in aid goes away. Should go away regardless, but that's another topic. This is just cold war rehash/reheat, and the cold war never really ended.

Russia increasing their trade ties elsewhere (and devoting the time / money to get that infrastructure in place to make that trade easier) makes them weaker how?

Depends on what source you read and who you trust. There's no doubt the sanctions are having an effect, how much of an effect depends on what you read.

Nord Stream may have got nipped but Power of Siberia will replace it. Most likely be prioritized and expanded now thanks to those sanctions. Soooo, China gets their stuff cheaper and the EU gets to pay more...

I'm glad that makes you happy. There's more moving parts in play neither us or anyone else can fully calculate as to the net outcome in the next year or so. There's also things in play we are not privy to that will change the equation in one direction or another. We shall see what we see and how it plays out. Much (most?) of that depends on how much land Ukraine can take back before the west/NATO/US loses interest and pressure adds up on Ukraine to settle and accept a loss of territory.

The Russians fully expect the west to lose interest and support if it drags on and the Ukrainians fail to make obvious progress. The west hopes the loss of men and gear and sanctions etc make it untenable for the Russians and internal pressure forces Putin out or to withdraw to at least 2014 lines. If it turns into a war of attrition where all the Russians have to do is hold onto the ground they have now, it favors the Russians in the short term.

Long term, and I said, they have set their country back 50-70 years on a wide range of matters.

[The Dumb Gun Collector]

DG sez: Consider how many countries have 'declined' on our sanctions routine here and not only went right on as normal but some - greatly increased their trade ties and cooperation with Russia...

Russia increasing their trade ties elsewhere (and devoting the time / money to get that infrastructure in place to make that trade easier) makes them weaker how?

Who? Iran? North Korea? A few dirt-poor African countries?

Russia is one thing: a gas station. 65% of Russian exports are gas products. Urals Crude is now trading at about $55 a barrel which is barely over last year's break even price. Given the increased shipping expenses (no one will ship Russian oil thanks to sanctions, so the Russians have to ship it themselves), the Russians are probably losing money for every barrel they ship. So yes, when Urals crude was trading at $110 a barrel the Russians could, in theory, sustain this by selling discount gas to the Indians and Chinese. Now the Russians are forced to sell their gas below market, which has also nicely driven the entire gas market down. All of that is just basic economic reality. No amount of telegram propaganda can fix that.

Western sanctions imposed on Moscow have failed to make a dent in Russia’s economy and ultimately only hurt Europeans, former Austrian Vice-Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache has said on Saturday. He also accused EU policymakers of turning a blind eye to the deadly fighting in Donbass, which he said served as a prelude to the current conflict for many years.

Speaking at a pro-neutrality rally in Vienna, which was also a protest against sanctions on Russia, Strache (former Austrian vice-chancellor) claimed that Austria’s decision to join the restrictions had turned out to be a self-inflicted wound. “Austria has shown Europe how the sanctions are damaging itself,” he said, telling his audience that the measures have caused soaring electricity and gas prices, with more and more people feeling the impact.

“If it goes on like this, next year in March and April we will face mass insolvencies and bankruptcies,” he warned, calling the possibility “damn dangerous.”

If the crisis is exacerbated and more people get desperate, “this could bring a dangerous development in the form of social tensions that we all do not want,” the former vice-chancellor added.

At the same time, Strache continued, the restrictions have failed to undermine the Russian economy. According to him, “this year, the Russians have doubled [their] business,” raking in $220 billion in revenue.


I tend to agree with everything he said there.

Well of course you agree, it's your unsourced link to Russian State Media. LOL

[Harpoon]

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/12/13/p...ine/index.html

"The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine that could be announced as soon as this week, according to two US officials and a senior administration official."

[tn1911]

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/12/13/p...ine/index.html

"The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine that could be announced as soon as this week, according to two US officials and a senior administration official."

The training for Patriot missile batteries normally takes multiple months, a process the United States will now carry out under the pressure of near-daily aerial attacks from Russia.

So I guess this means we’re “officially” on the ground now?

[tn1911]

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/12/13/p...ine/index.html

"The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine that could be announced as soon as this week, according to two US officials and a senior administration official."

The training for Patriot missile batteries normally takes multiple months, a process the United States will now carry out under the pressure of near-daily aerial attacks from Russia.

So I guess this means we’re “officially” on the ground now?

[WillBrink]

So I guess this means we’re “officially” on the ground now?

We have had military "advisors" there since 14. We and other NATO forces trained them up to western standards, hence why they have handed the Russians a nasty beat down with a fraction of the men and resources. CIA, various SOF, PMC, and other advisors been doing what they do best for years now. I don't know what the official reaction to invasion normally is, (i.e., advisors pulled out when it turns into a legit shooting war), but I personally have no doubts there's spooks and sheep dipped nasty boys and "advisors" crawling all over the place. Honestly, as long as they continue to get supplies and weapons, the Russians are in a meat grinder that will never end.

The Ukrainian's assumed they'd already be into the guerrilla phase of the war I suspect and even they surprised at their successes so far. If the Russians were to win the major ground offensives, I think the guerrilla phase will make what they experienced in Afg, and what we experienced in Vietnam, look like small time.

Only way that does not happen is if the west puts major pressure on Ukraine to take a peace deal of some sort, and right now the west has no reason to do that and good reasons to use this proxy war to trash what's left of the Russians.

[FromMyColdDeadHand]

Solid interview with a legit war dog who has been in the stuff all over the globe it sounds like. His take and experience in Ukraine is worth a view for sure. Ukraine is now the lightening rod for professional soldiers from all over the world who are meat eaters that will fight to the end who hate Russians, and rightly so. Estimated 20k foreign fighters so far and counting. Lots of Georgian's who are hardened trained and hate Russians. What % are hardened combat vets and well trained soldiers, and which are wanna be cannon fodder, I can't say. I do know if say 50% are the former, and being equipped with quality gear, ongoing western intel, etc, the Russians are going to lose a lot of men and gear, possibly more then they can sustain.

The bottom line here is, the Russians want to make it last as long as possible expecting the west to lose it's interest and support, and they're not wrong either. We have a real bad habit of doing that when the next shiny ball arrives, new admins, change in economy, etc. The Russians will dig in for the winter and try and win on attrition now, and wait for the NATO, US in particular, to lose interest and $ support, and put pressure on Ukraine to settle for the lost territories.

Finally, this feels different to me and perhaps the NATO nations, US in particular, will maintain the support and interest, but much of that depends on public support, and for that, they have to show progress by Ukraine. I'd say 6 months is the window for that.

I do think if it becomes a true war of attrition and goes beyond 6m-1y, the Russians will "win." I put win in quotes because win or lose militarily, they have lost and set the country back 50-70 years.

AS long as Americans aren't dying, we will keep up the support. It's costing us money, but I don't even beleive the GOPers that say that they are against spending the money and would rather spend it here. They spend money like crazy- and as long as it going to defense contractors (IE Americans) and not as cash money payments that evaporate, I'm fine with it. For once we have in-country 'allies' that we don't have to mega-bribe to stick around, let alone fight. We get the fight the first years of WWIII kind of like we did WWII- watching and learning, while arm one side. BRing on the modern P51s, radar, Fletcher destroyers and the like. Get new gear with long date codes and get the cost per unit down. The internationalists and the defense contractors will keep the money coming

[tn1911]

Only way that does not happen is if the west puts major pressure on Ukraine to take a peace deal of some sort, and right now the west has no reason to do that and good reasons to use this proxy war to trash what's left of the Russians.

NATO has no reason to not let Ukraine continue to destroy Russia’s military. This slow walk from no strikes on Russian soil to ok drones... to hey here’s some Patriot’s is intentional. Russia cant risk any further escalations because they can’t continue to fight Ukraine as long as NATO keeps giving them better and longer range weapons and they know any direct confrontation with NATO is akin to committing suicide.