Russian invasion of Ukraine discussion

[ODgreenpizza]

Ukraine launched their offensive by committing mechanized units in company size on RIF/probing operations across broad sections of the line of contact. Last night those operations intensified and began to concentrate around 3 areas: Bakhmut in the north, Velyka Novosilka in the middle, and Orikhiv in the South. Of note are the first instances of large scale mechanized operations conducted at night by either side with constant fighting through the hours of darkness. This moring brought the first images, from Russian sources, of Leopard MBTs committed to battle.

I suspect the Ukrainians were attempting to force the Russians to commit their tactical reserves by pressing them across the front line. I suspect they were successful as there are reports from Russian social media of unprecedented levels of shelling and mlrs strikes well behind the front, especially around the Tokmak area. I suspect the Russians blew the NK dam to forstall any UA attempt to cross the Dnipro in order to re-deploy those troops on the west bank to Zap Oblast, as well as imposing retribution for the UA sponsored separatist activity in Belgorod. In short, UA drew Russian tactical reserves out and is subjecting them to long range fires as they move to the front.

I think an area to watch is the Orikhiv-Tokmak-Melitopol line. If UA is successful in driving to Melitopol they will sever the land connection of Crimea to Russia and the occupied Donbas. A push south from Velyka Novosilka would accomplish the same but the terrain is less favorable for the attacker and my guess is this is a diversionary/plan B effort. The push around Bakhmut is a diversionary effort.

Overnight Russian social media exploded with reports of massive UA attacks and massive UA losses. This likely indicates UA is achieving some success as the Russians seek to immediately drown out bad news with nonsense. They also seemed suprised that UA would press the attack at night. Info from the Ukrainian camp is trickling out this morning indicating some advances, especially on the Orikhiv axis as the puppet mayor of Tokmak has ordred civilians to evacuate.

[ChattanoogaPhil]

Ukraine, Israel, NATO, Germany, and the US all stated Russia blew the dam.

Ukraine struck the bridge deck with GMLRS during the Kherson offensive last year and damaged one of the floodgates, Russia blew charges set on the bridge deck and damaged some sluice gates during their withdraw.

The Russians have had control of the dam since capturing it in FEB2022, the control facilities are on the Russian side, Russian troops posted on social media about detting charges in the dam SEP2022.

The Russians allowed the water level behind the dam to rise over the last several weeks to the point of flowing over the top.

Social media posting from pro Russia sphere claiming responsibility immediately after breach, a few hours later all changed to blaming Ukraine.

After recent reporting that US and other European leaders had intelligence since June 2022 of a Ukrainian plot to blow up Nord Stream pipeline, yet never felt inclined to publicly mention it now nine months later, I'm less than impressed with immediate screams that Russia blew up the dam.

[ODgreenpizza]

After recent reporting that US and other European leaders had intelligence since June 2022 of a Ukrainian plot to blow up Nord Stream pipeline, yet never felt inclined to publicly mention it now nine months later, I'm less than impressed with immediate screams that Russia blew up the dam.

If you're refering to documents from the Teixeira leaks, they do not implicate the government of Ukraine but do point to the possibility of a pro Ukraine group acting unilaterally. Lots of countries have lots of contingency plans for destroying lots of their adversaries stuff.

Is destroying an inactive pipeline worth the risk of damaging the relationships with the allies whose territory you violated and infrastructure destroyed, and on which the entirety of your war effort depends?

On 30MAY2023 Russia adopted Resolution 873 on industrial safety that would allow for the delay of investigation into incidents at dams and other critical infrastructure in Russia and occupied territories until 2028 due to the SMO. A week before the dam blew, quite a coincidence.

[ODgreenpizza]

They may be correct, probably are, but the chances of them blaming anyone but Russia, is at 0%. You know that works...

That is true. One thing that jumps out at me on this subject is the lack of speculation over how Ukraine might have blown the dam compared with speculation over Ukraine's possible motives for blowing the dam.

There is also the possibility, least likely I think, the dam failed due to previous damage inflicted by both sides and Russia's failure to maintain safe water levels in the reservoir. This would be quite the coincidence given the timing.

[WillBrink]

That is true. One thing that jumps out at me on this subject is the lack of speculation over how Ukraine might have blown the dam compared with speculation over Ukraine's possible motives for blowing the dam.

There is also the possibility, least likely I think, the dam failed due to previous damage inflicted by both sides and Russia's failure to maintain safe water levels in the reservoir. This would be quite the coincidence given the timing.

I have seen some here, but that's the Q: it's Russian held territory and there would be vid if it had been a missile strike, so how? Rubber rafts and commando chit? Very doubtful, not impossible. Most likely answer is the Russians did it. Like much (most?) of it, we will not know what actually happened, if we ever do. 95% of what we get from west/NATO/US is psy ops BS, 100% of what we get from Russia is BS. If not for some great online sources, and YT channels (1) we'd have to rely on pro/anti Ukraine 24/7 legacy media.

It's never been any difference since at least Roman times.

1: https://www.youtube.com/@willyOAM

[The Dumb Gun Collector]

ukrainian-columns-hit-by-artillery-mines-in-zaporizhzia. Looks like shit is getting real.


https://funker530.com/video/ukrainia...OVqJY4mgBARZZg
https://funker530.com/video/ukrainia...OVqJY4mgBARZZghttps://funker530.com/video/ukrainia...OVqJY4mgBARZZg

[ChattanoogaPhil]

If you're refering to documents from the Teixeira leaks, they do not implicate the government of Ukraine but do point to the possibility of a pro Ukraine group acting unilaterally. Lots of countries have lots of contingency plans for destroying lots of their adversaries stuff.

Is destroying an inactive pipeline worth the risk of damaging the relationships with the allies whose territory you violated and infrastructure destroyed, and on which the entirety of your war effort depends?

On 30MAY2023 Russia adopted Resolution 873 on industrial safety that would allow for the delay of investigation into incidents at dams and other critical infrastructure in Russia and occupied territories until 2028 due to the SMO. A week before the dam blew, quite a coincidence.

Damage a relationship with allied nations that are so deep into funding and promoting the importance of Ukrainian success in this war that they aren't even willing to pubicly admit they had intel showing Ukrainian plans to blow up the pipeline before it was blown up?

One thing is certain, a lot of people only see what they want to see.

[georgeib]

One thing is certain, a lot of people only see what they want to see.

Always been true, but the theme of the last decade for sure.

[mack7.62]

I hope this is true I love stories about the TikTok Brigade getting killed, does that make me a bad person? And I could care less who blew up the Nord pipeline, anyone who thinks it was a good idea for Western Europe to rely on Russia for natural gas, well.....

Glasnost Gone
@GlasnostGone
·
6h
It's only polite: #Ukraine dropped in to say hello to some of 'Kadyrov's “Akhmat,” so-called Chechen special forces. June 6 in occupied Donetsk, "an effective fire attack on a training camp" resulted in 56 killed. No goat casualties were reported. https://facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts

[DG23]

ukrainian-columns-hit-by-artillery-mines-in-zaporizhzia. Looks like shit is getting real.


https://funker530.com/video/ukrainia...OVqJY4mgBARZZg
https://funker530.com/video/ukrainia...OVqJY4mgBARZZghttps://funker530.com/video/ukrainia...OVqJY4mgBARZZg

That is just them 'preparing the battlefield' dude.

(with their bodies)

Almost 5k killed in just the last few days from what I have been hearing and all for NO meaningful gains. So much for all of that 'western training' I guess!

Thank goodness that Russia ran out of weapons last year AND that their economy is crumbling! The UAF should have this offensive wrapped up in a few more hours!