Russian invasion of Ukraine discussion

[DG23]

Good interviews from foreigner (US, etc) fighting for Ukrainian mil. They are not spouting propaganda about easy win, but honest it's a slog as expected but no plans to do anything but fight on:

It's from CNN and you seriously want anyone to believe it is somehow NOT propaganda?


Ukraine made a really big deal about the 'upcoming offensive' for a good while as a 'fund raiser'. Russia listened and watched and NOW that Ukraine has finally 'had to do something' instead of talking to keep the money / support rolling in - Things are not going so well for them.

I feel bad for the guys that Ukraine are forcibly using as artillery fodder here.

A great number of those guys do not have a choice if they wish to step into this fight or not and I do truly feel bad for them. Both sides...

Sumy is located in Ukraine with (50.9216,34.8003) coordinates and Moscow is located in Russia with (55.7522,37.6156) coordinates. The calculated flying distance from Sumy to Moscow is equal to 353 miles which is equal to 569 km.

[mack7.62]

Dude even Russian sources are saying things are not going well.

Rob Lee
@RALee85
·
4m
Yesterday, Starshe Eddy said that Ukraine may have committed as many as 9k troops for the offensive at Balakliya and shelled Kupyansk. He thinks this is part of a larger operation that will involve putting pressure on Russian lines south of Izyum.
https://t.me/vysokygovorit/9324

Rob Lee
@RALee85
·
13m
Some Russian channels are also expressing concern if Ukrainian forces get to Kunye, which is a critical logistical hub for Izyum.
https://t.me/vysokygovorit/9321
https://t.me/notes_veterans/

Rob Lee
@RALee85
·
54m
Another pessimistic account from a Russian source saying that Russian forces are abandoning not particularly well-fortified positions. It says Ukrainian forces read Suvorov and are bypassing towns and urban fights to advance deeper behind Russian lines.
https://t.me/romanov_92/27012


Rob Lee
@RALee85
·
3h
An account from a Russian Channel says that Ukraine massed a “powerful tank fist” with 15 tanks at Balakliya, which led to the breakthrough. They say Russian aviation couldn’t help in time because Ukraine saturated the area with air defenses.
https://t.me/romanov_92/27019

ISW
@TheStudyofWar
·
1h
Southern Axis Update:

#Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), inadvertently confirmed that #Ukrainian forces are making gains in western #Kherson Oblast in the Sukhyi Stavok pocket. /2


ISW
@TheStudyofWar
·
1h
#Kharkiv Update:

#Ukrainian forces advanced at least 20km deep into #Russian-controlled territory north of #Izyum toward #Kupyansk and recaptured about 400 square kilometers on September 6-7. /1
https://isw.pub/RusCampaignSept7

#Kharkiv Update:

#Russian sources claimed that #Ukrainian forces are attempting to advance on Savintsi (just north of Zalyman on the R78), which would cut #Balakliya off from rear GLOCs. /4

#Russian sources claimed that #Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups conducted unspecified operations in Bilyi Kolodyaz, Vovchansk, and Hnylytsya, all deep in the Russian rear east of the Siverskyi Donets River. /5

[tn1911]

Ukraine celebrates counterattack ‘success’; Russia appears to be on the defensive as Ukraine slowly but surely gains ground.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...sia-retaliates

[mack7.62]

Oops false alarm.

[alx01]

Zelenski claimed that Ukrainian forces have re-captured 1000sq/km from Russians in recent month(s). Even if we accept his claims at face value that is 12x32 miles rectangle. Area roughly the size of Indianapolis.

Location matters - it's one thing to capture a large heavily defended city, it's another to capture the same size of barren undefended Syrian/Iraqi desert.

Can somebody with more knowledge about the state of things and geography put this claim into perspective for me?

Dailymail published a claim of Ukrainian offensive with a couple Tiktok videos as a proof. It showed just a few pieces of old Soviet armor, but no reliable indication of where/when it was taken. For all I know it could have been staged in Romania or Poland without Ukrainians. It could have been showing a Ukrainian retreat or planned relocation.
One suspicious thing is if Ukrainian soldiers were allowed to use smartphones and Tiktok there would have been hundreds, if not thousands of videos all over the internet. Seeing 2-5 short, unmarked videos without any details really look like intentional staging.

[mack7.62]

Ukraine knows better than to get sucked into major urban combat, their strategy is to cut supply lines and isolate and then nibble around the edges. They've cut off Kherson and now Izyum is down to its last one, if they can hold what they have this winter is going to be pretty bleak for all in those two areas.

Dmitri
@wartranslated
·
1h
It's getting very hot for the Russians in Izyum and Kupyansk. As the Russian Kotsnews reports, the latter only has one supply line remaining, and the AFU are going for cutting it off. A heroic defence cool story included.

https://t.me/sashakots/35456

[WillBrink]

Assuming these are authentic, moral of the Russians seems very poor:

[WillBrink]

Good vid from someone with direct experience and training, etc of Ukrainian forces etc:

[mack7.62]

Ukrainians are fighting for their country and their survival, Russians are fighting for Putin's ego, no brainer on which is more motivated. The Gray Zone is the Wagner mercenary Telegram channel, not sending any to help hold Izyum is likely a sign they are writing it off.

Rob Lee
@RALee85
·
17m
The Grey Zone channel says that Wagner fighters have not been transferred to the Kupyansk or Izyum areas as reinforcements.
https://t.me/grey_zone/14947

Matthew Luxmoore
@mjluxmoore
Unbelievable screed from a pro-Kremlin military blogger telling Russian occupation officials to stop denying Ukrainian advances when there's literally photos of their soldiers in liberated towns. Every other word of this post is a curse-word.

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/statu...08510533386241

[mack7.62]

Posting this again because it's important, if the usual 1:3 dead to wounded holds true then Russia has lost 200,000 in a little over 6 months. And keep in mind these are Russian military only, not LNR, DNR, mercenaries, foreign "volunteers" etc.

Megan McArdle
@asymmetricinfo
·
6m
For comparison, the US lost 58,220 soldiers in the 13 years of the Vietnam war (https://archives.gov/research/milita...202008.)--from a population that started about 20% higher than modern Russia, and ended about 45% higher. If these estimates are correct, these casualty numbers are stunning.
Quote Tweet
Mikhail Khodorkovsky (English)
@mbk_center
·
4h
A leaked letter from the Russian Finance Ministry says that as of 28.8., 361.4 billion rubles have been paid to the families of the deceased
For each fallen soldier,it's 7.4 million rubles
‼️ In total,this gives 48,759 confirmed dead
Missing and DPR + LLR soldiers are not counted