So, are we in a Recession or not?

[FromMyColdDeadHand]

................

I agree, but on the other side, most production has order books that last until the end of the year... of course that could change. That is why I told my boss that we need to track the number of cancelled orders (and the reason). Demand dropping, competitors being able to supply, or other reasons may look the same, but have different outcomes. The real issue is that as industrial demand drops off, companies are still looking at long order books- so do you keep going full stream into the downturn- because you need to get the back orders filled, and that isn't even getting back to a 'stock' situation. So you could hum all the way through a 3-4 quarter recession, and still struggle to meet demand in 2023Q2&3...

I have a job that is functional global and strategic involvement, but I feed info to the people that make the final decisions. Our current leadership group has been in place since 2000, and I told them recently that they are industrial gangsters for having had to chart y2k, the GWOT, the Great Financial Crisis, the 'phony economy' since then, COVID and the aftershocks, and now inflation. Cool hand on the tillers.

[okie]

I agree, but on the other side, most production has order books that last until the end of the year... of course that could change. That is why I told my boss that we need to track the number of cancelled orders (and the reason). Demand dropping, competitors being able to supply, or other reasons may look the same, but have different outcomes. The real issue is that as industrial demand drops off, companies are still looking at long order books- so do you keep going full stream into the downturn- because you need to get the back orders filled, and that isn't even getting back to a 'stock' situation. So you could hum all the way through a 3-4 quarter recession, and still struggle to meet demand in 2023Q2&3...

I have a job that is functional global and strategic involvement, but I feed info to the people that make the final decisions. Our current leadership group has been in place since 2000, and I told them recently that they are industrial gangsters for having had to chart y2k, the GWOT, the Great Financial Crisis, the 'phony economy' since then, COVID and the aftershocks, and now inflation. Cool hand on the tillers.

Bullwhip effect. Gets 'em every time. Invariably, by the time manufacturing catches up with perceived demand, the real demand has actually vanished.

With consumer goods, it's even worse because of just in time. The ups and downs are even more pronounced because nothing gets made without active orders on the books, and that just makes the bullwhip effect ten times worse.