Eagle vs the Dragon

[ABNAK]

U.S. vs China.

Several questions or points I've pondered, and although it is obviously soothsaying to give an answer by any of us, let's give it a whirl:



1) I predict it would mainly be a USN (primarily) and USAF (close second) conflict. Army or Marine assets, while certainly helpful in specific circumstances, isn't going to be the "Big Push".....they aren't going to invade us and we aren't going to invade them. I also wouldn't see us putting Infantry units on Taiwan, maybe a few" advisors" though.

2) China fires missiles from the mainland at U.S. carrier task forces. Something like the YJ-21 or others could cause some real problems. Do we reply with strikes inside China proper, i.e. hitting the launch sites of hostile missiles? Same goes for aircraft strikes originating from China (although I think we would eventually own the airspace and missiles would remain the most lethal threat). Would that then give the ChiComs legitimate reason to hit CONUS targets, assuming conventional warheads?

3) I think MANY of our bases in the Western Pacific would be hit in addition to attacks on our naval forces. Again we ask whether actual launches from the Chinese mainland are responded to or would China become a huge Laos/Cambodia/Pakistan that we can't openly respond in kind to.

4) I think eventually we would prevail....don't want to use the term "win" because both sides would still have control of their home countries, but we would lose more KIA than we have since Vietnam. The Navy and Air Force would likewise see a level and intensity of combat not experienced in 78 years.



I hope it never happens, because the loss of life (our side, don't give two shits about theirs) and the potentially catastrophic effects on our economy are awful. When two nuclear-armed countries exchange blows, one wonders how long before someone pulls out the "canned sunshine" gun?

I hold out hope that if it does go down that we have tech and other shit that can fark up the ChiCom tech.

[SomeOtherGuy]

1) I predict it would mainly be a USN (primarily) and USAF (close second) conflict. Army or Marine assets, while certainly helpful in specific circumstances, isn't going to be the "Big Push".....they aren't going to invade us and we aren't going to invade them. I also wouldn't see us putting Infantry units on Taiwan, maybe a few" advisors" though.

2) China fires missiles from the mainland at U.S. carrier task forces. Something like the YJ-21 or others could cause some real problems. Do we reply with strikes inside China proper, i.e. hitting the launch sites of hostile missiles? Same goes for aircraft strikes originating from China (although I think we would eventually own the airspace and missiles would remain the most lethal threat). Would that then give the ChiComs legitimate reason to hit CONUS targets, assuming conventional warheads?

USN and USAF 50-50, I predict the USAF role would be quite large.

The USA has two realistic options: go all-in, or accept a blatantly diminished role in the world, as Taiwan falls to CCP and all of our vague security promises are proven completely worthless. We're already losing tons of peripheral support after Afghanistan and Ukraine, losing Taiwan would make it 10x worse.

Our proxy war in Ukraine has shown that, on the positive, our weapon systems work very well and rather few of Russia's work reliably; but that we are unable to supply enough ammo and basic logistics for a moderate war in a country with a nice big land border to friendly NATO allies. The odds that we could supply a conventional war of attrition in or around Taiwan for any length of time are tiny.

So, if you're playing to win (which the US has barely done since 1945), the only logical way to go is with absolutely massive force immediately, because we won't be able to do much after 2-3 months. Massive force could be conventional or nuclear, but it has to be immediate and massive. We would HAVE to hit mainland China with everything we have, regardless of escalation or consequences. Anything else is guaranteed failure.

I think that the USN and USAF, if given an unrestricted GO order, could wreck the PLAN in a day or two and do massive damage to all other Chinese capabilities. Obviously we would suffer counterattacks and likely major losses. It would be best to keep all our carrier groups far away. We also have to simultaneously tell Russia they have two options: 1) they stay the fck out and we will drop our Ukraine proxy war in exchange, or 2) they assist China and it's the worst nuclear WW3 right now. Russia and China are allies at this point, but Russia might prefer survival over option 2.

This could easily go nuclear. No question this is like playing with matches in an empty grain silo with a propane leak, a gasoline spill and a ton of aging fireworks lying around. Probably why China has not yet taken military action - they can game this out too.

My 2 cents.

[SteyrAUG]

It would be so much a tech / stuxnet war I don't think very many could even imagine it until after it happened.

It would be one of the few times Israel would likely be a "major player" in any of our conflicts, because they are one of the few allies we have who are keeping current on this stuff and China would likely have alliances with unlikely allies such as Iran.

China does not want to trade planes for planes, missiles for missiles or warships for warships with us even though they would probably be the first enemy in history with a production capacity to even think about doing it.

This is also one of the things that bothers me most about Ukraine. While I think it is a straight up land snatch by Putin to rebuild the old empire and Ukraine is the victim, I wish to F that they would stop screwing with us and we would stop screwing with them in an endless game of "F you back" because if we did decide to throw down with China, we'd actually want to be on the same page with Russia with good relations with them but we ratfuct that idea when Obama drew a line in the sand over Syria of all fing places.

We were fighting the government that was fighting ISIS and fighting ISIS at the same time, and people have the nerve to say Bush 43 was a fing idiot with a retarded middle east policy. I mean it's true but he's comparatively a genius given what has happened since.

[FromMyColdDeadHand]

All the US has to do is not lose. Cut off the Malacca Straits and watch them starve and go cold- and then the revolution starts.

[C-grunt]

With as bad as Russia has done in Ukraine, I wouldn't be surprised if China sees eastern Russia as a much easier and far less politically/economic problematic way to expand its empire.

I half think that the talks between China and Russia are an effort by Russia to try and avoid that diplomatically.

[flenna]

I don’t think it would happen. Our economies are intertwined to the point where it would be devastating to both of us if the faucet was suddenly turned off. I could see small regional, one-off conflicts but I am sure Gen. Milley would give Xi a call ahead of time to let him know the Big Guy has his back.

[TMS951]

With as bad as Russia has done in Ukraine, I wouldn't be surprised if China sees eastern Russia as a much easier and far less politically/economic problematic way to expand its empire.

I half think that the talks between China and Russia are an effort by Russia to try and avoid that diplomatically.

I don’t think China wants more land.

They don’t want tiawan to set a precedent by leaving China and becoming a democracy. It’s about China saving face and nothing else. It’s like the crack down in Hong Kong.

They really can’t let Taiwan go.

[SomeOtherGuy]

I don’t think China wants more land.
They don’t want tiawan to set a precedent by leaving China and becoming a democracy. It’s about China saving face and nothing else. It’s like the crack down in Hong Kong.
They really can’t let Taiwan go.

It's darker than just saving face. The CCP has adopted a racial philosophy nearly identical to that of the NSDAP (Nazis), but of course with "Han" Chinese being the supreme race, wisest, center of all, etc. I use quotes because the CCP's "Han" Chinese are about as pure Han as Adolf and his inner circle were pure Aryan, but in both cases it doesn't seem to stop them from espousing the ideology.

Here's just one article and video discussing this. There are plenty more for those seeking confirmation. Or you can just read the foundational documents for each party and compare them yourself.

https://www.israelunwired.com/nazi-germany-ccp-china/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wD53MEbLDIE




So China's goal isn't really more land, it's including and controlling ALL, and I mean ALL, ethnic Chinese under the CCP, in their ideological racial nation-state. Ethnic Chinese people who don't submit to the CCP threaten their control and their worldview, so bringing them under control is mission #1. Other Chinese outside of the CCP's political state should be aware of this too, all over the world.

[Alpha-17]

China wants resources and more revenue streams, but the potential loss of face if Taiwan leaves is by far the biggest issue. They're fine with the status quo, but any threat to that cannot be allowed.

When it comes down to throwing down, I agree it'll primarily be a Navy/Air Force war, unless humanity decides that WWIII sounds like fun after all, and it expands to places like Korea, India, or Southeast Asia. If it stays a Naval war, I don't see the Chinese succeeding, but Taiwan might be bombed flat in the process. Full scale war will be anyone's guess.

I'd like to think we'd "win" but if the last year has shown that domestic politics will make the whole thing partisan. If Biden gets his balls (and a couple brain cells to rub together) and stands up against China, we'll see pro-China shilling from the right wing. Be entertaining to watch Tucker Carlson sing China's praises, at least for 30 seconds. If the fighting starts with a (R) in command, I'm sure MSNBC, BLM, and Antifa will be extoling the virtues of China's economic model, anti-racism, and friendliness towards LGBTQ+?whateverelsehasbeenaddedbythatpoint. It's sad we've fallen to that level, but I guess there's not much we can do about it now.

[FromMyColdDeadHand]

I agree on the ‘face saving’ over Taiwan forcing them to make poor decisions. Look at COVID. COVID was the ANSWER to their demographic problem- it kills old people to a large degree preferentially. It would have gone a long ways towards solving that problem that the 1 child policy has brought. But Xi tried to play the angle that with authoritarianism, you can control things and stop the spread- and this prove the superiority of their system… well zero COVID didn’t work.

So Xi will take bad advice if he thinks he can get a domestic political victory out of it… that’s not good.