Wow china…. welcome to 1923!!!

[tn1911]

The Chinese military has now demonstrated aerial refueling in waters over the Pacific


https://warriormaven.com/china/chine...ier-based-j-15

Only took’em 100 years too!

Great job finding the fairway Chinamart!

[pag23]

Fire in the sky......

[ABNAK]

I would rather over-estimate them than under-estimate, but I don't think they are all that and a bag of chips. I sincerely hope we don't ever have to find out, but I do not think the ChiComs would prevail in the long run. Of course a lot of that depends on who occupies the Oval Office at the time.

Most likely confrontation is over Taiwan. Close to 100 miles of ocean (or air) is a l-o-n-g way to go against 2023 technology. Only those two ways, you ain't gonna pour a million screaming Chinese into Taiwan like across the Yalu. Ships and aircraft only.....sink one, shoot down the other.

[hotbiggun42]

Have they mastered the art off taking of and landing their fighter jets at night from a aircraft carrier?

[SomeOtherGuy]

Most likely confrontation is over Taiwan. Close to 100 miles of ocean (or air) is a l-o-n-g way to go against 2023 technology. Only those two ways, you ain't gonna pour a million screaming Chinese into Taiwan like across the Yalu. Ships and aircraft only.....sink one, shoot down the other.

Prior to the Ukraine war I thought China could likely saturate Taiwan's defenses and obliterate much of them with missiles. At the least China could blockade Taiwan and make it impossible to function, but potentially they could land troops and fully take over.

Watching the last six months in Ukraine, western air defenses and Patriot in particular are performing much better than I expected, against a lot of Russian missiles, some of them supposedly unstoppable ballistic or hypersonic missiles. The missile defense calculation seems to have flipped in favor of defense, at least while magazines are full. No expert on Taiwan's defenses but apart from presumed access to US resources, they have their own Sky Bow / Tien Kung system that looks quite capable, and of course designed entirely for defending their island against the CCP.

Meanwhile the US is digging out of a hole in its hypersonic tech, but seems to be making rapid progress. And developing flexible offensive systems of various kinds, including the truck-based SSM and ASM systems the Army and USMC are rolling out, plus the USAF "quicksink" guided anti-ship bomb program, which makes ships without modern air defense incredibly vulnerable. So, all in all, it looks like China's best opportunity to take Taiwan on a purely military basis may already be in the past.

That said, don't underestimate the ability of Clownworld and "Joe Biden" to F up anything. Energy Sec'y Granholm was apparently taking China's lunch orders when she and Joe spent the bulk of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, for example.

[ABNAK]

Prior to the Ukraine war I thought China could likely saturate Taiwan's defenses and obliterate much of them with missiles. At the least China could blockade Taiwan and make it impossible to function, but potentially they could land troops and fully take over.

Watching the last six months in Ukraine, western air defenses and Patriot in particular are performing much better than I expected, against a lot of Russian missiles, some of them supposedly unstoppable ballistic or hypersonic missiles. The missile defense calculation seems to have flipped in favor of defense, at least while magazines are full. No expert on Taiwan's defenses but apart from presumed access to US resources, they have their own Sky Bow / Tien Kung system that looks quite capable, and of course designed entirely for defending their island against the CCP.

Meanwhile the US is digging out of a hole in its hypersonic tech, but seems to be making rapid progress. And developing flexible offensive systems of various kinds, including the truck-based SSM and ASM systems the Army and USMC are rolling out, plus the USAF "quicksink" guided anti-ship bomb program, which makes ships without modern air defense incredibly vulnerable. So, all in all, it looks like China's best opportunity to take Taiwan on a purely military basis may already be in the past.

That said, don't underestimate the ability of Clownworld and "Joe Biden" to F up anything. Energy Sec'y Granholm was apparently taking China's lunch orders when she and Joe spent the bulk of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, for example.

I honestly think that the war in Ukraine has made the ChiComs re-think their Taiwan wet dreams. It was a bucket of cold water thrown on them to gaze upon modern, full-on 21st Century warfare. Of course we have also paid attention (I hope). "Near-peer" ain't no bullshit.

[Averageman]

I honestly think that the war in Ukraine has made the ChiComs re-think their Taiwan wet dreams. It was a bucket of cold water thrown on them to gaze upon modern, full-on 21st Century warfare. Of course we have also paid attention (I hope). "Near-peer" ain't no bullshit.

Well you know our technology would probobly make the life of that refueler very hazardous and then folks start dropping into the water.

[ABNAK]

If the intent of air-to-air refueling is to extend range, then you have to actually be able to take off somewhere distant with the refueler. That is where the ChiComs will come up short. Kind of like we can have refuelers launch from Hawaii, Guam, Diego Garcia, etc., the ChiComs have no such far-flung bases.

[Diamondback]

If the intent of air-to-air refueling is to extend range, then you have to actually be able to take off somewhere distant with the refueler. That is where the ChiComs will come up short. Kind of like we can have refuelers launch from Hawaii, Guam, Diego Garcia, etc., the ChiComs have no such far-flung bases.

Hence the Belt-Road Initiative and the debt-trap "infrastructure loans." I still think they INTEND to "Try That In A Small Town" here, but they're waiting until they have things to the level of destabilization and collapse they want--on the other hnd, they have a LOT of young and pissed-off "Men of Military Age" with no prospects of finding "acceptable" purebred Han wives to settle down and start families with that they need to "expend" very soon before their mass disgruntlement turns from "outward" to "inward."

For the Old Regime and its Old Order to merely survive never mind continue the scam, a LOT of young Chinese men need to die VERY fast before some of them start seeing "the West all seem to have happy families and my parents did, why can't I?" and getting Torches & Pitchforks ideas.

[Diamondback]

Well you know our technology would probobly make the life of that refueler very hazardous and then folks start dropping into the water.

Yup. Smoke the tankers and AWACSes first and the fighters become a lot easier to mop up--I've long proposed converting B-1s and B-52s into long-range long-loiter "Infrastructure Killers" with new extreme-range air-to-air missiles, something like a full shipboard Aegis including the surface-launch booster but adapted with aircraft-drop lugs. Or put a HARM seeker on a JASSM or Storm Shadow. Ideally for this role we need something that flies at high-altitude but has a stealth capability, something combining stages of a ballistic missile for initial boost and a cruise missile or PGM for the midcourse and terminal-guidance phases.