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Thread: Say it isnt so.............

  1. #11
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    That guy was dead on. If you are planning on selling one, for a premium, you better get to it. Once the backorders show up, you are only going to be selling used gear. Of course this is dependent on what DC is saying over the next few months.

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRIDENT82 View Post
    IMHO there is two AR markets,

    first being complete AR rifles like a colt 6920 or noveske n4 light....these i bel. pound for pound are the most sought after by all buyers in this market considering many well read first time AR buyers go with these, and many guys going back to the org. colts in nam seek them. I do believe this market has significantly slowed but i also bel. this market never was close to being as large as the second, and esp over the pre and post obama months.

    Secondly there is the AR aftermarket parts and upgrades market which includes COMPLETE UPPERS.....need i say more about demand currently in this actual market. Well i will indulge your brains for a minute: Ask yourself this question?
    Compile the following shopping list of AR parts and include how long it would HONESTLY take u grab all the items without every paying 10% over msrp on the item.

    list:
    1. Magpul Ubr any color.
    2. LMT mrp (your choice of rifle or cqb or piston)
    3. Vltor VIS (vis1,2, or 3)
    4. Noveske Spr/afgan/recon length barrel( just 1)
    5. NEED I GO ON....a bit depressing!
    Excellent point. Thats kinda what I have been seeing as well.



    Quote Originally Posted by murphy j View Post
    There's only 2 shops in this town that I pretty sure have been around that long. Not sure which shop you called, but I can hazard a guess. I don't believe it because every show I go to people I know are selling out of ARs. Granted, it's not quite the frenzy it was around election day, but I'm still not buying it. Now it may be that this particular shop has their stuff priced a bit too high and nobodys buying because of better deals elsewhere.
    Yes, you are correct. Without naming names, this is the shop in midtown, and they have several AR's in stock. Mostly S&W's I believe, and I thought the prices were a little higher than most others. I have bought several handguns from this store over the years, and they have always been very reasonable. In fact, I just bought an M&P there a few weeks back.

    I agree with another poster that he just wanted to sell a Kimber. I have a hard time believing that there is no more market.

  3. #13
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    Market is still there but fading. I've been watching prices trend down over the last 6 weeks.

    Yes, manufacturers have a huge backlog, but much of that is from guys like my FFL/dealer friend -- he's got 100 LMTs on order, but he only really needs 20. The other 80 were insurance, and since he doesn't have to pay for them until they ship, why not?

    I myself had at least 6 LMT uppers on order at various places. When I got what I wanted, I cancelled the ones at Quanitco, at Grant's place, etc. Nothing personal to those shops, but I just wanted to make sure that I could get one from where-ever. Now 5 LMT upper orders have "disappeared" due to my cancellations and I'm sure I'm not the only one that had multiple orders out there.

    This is what happens in every bubble. As a great business mentor of mine said -- "Billions of dollars in backlog can disappear in a single phone call. Just ask Boeing".
    Last edited by Mark21; 05-07-09 at 07:56.

  4. #14
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    I don't think the bubble has popped yet, but I'm amazed at people who don't believe that there is any bubble at all. Just like people were buying multiple properties because "The housing market just keeps gaining value!" there are people who are hoarding ridiculous quantities of AR items. While this is an easier market to "time" than the housing market because of the factors that contribute to it, it's still not the endless money pool that some seem to believe.

    I think those who have decided to use this panic as an investment vehicle should set a target profit and sell at that amount when they can.

    I'm not saying this as an endorsement of the strategies of the fear mongers or profiteers that we've seen: I hate that they've artificially driven up values on so many items.

    While it's tangential, I think another thing for people to consider is that if another ban is enacted, it doesn't necessarily have to behave like the last one. Why rely on your enemies to fight a new battle with old tactics? Specifically, I mean that pre-ban items might not be legally transferable under new legislation. We've already seen this in some states, so why don't more people consider it as a possibility at the federal level?

    Someone who's carrying debt so that he can sit on 1,000 PMAGs may think he'll turn a sweet profit once the ban years come. What if he can't move them before it becomes illegal to do so? While I realize that's not likely (such impending legislation would just create another, larger panic), it shouldn't be considered out of the question if someone is attempting such a strategy. And if a new ban doesn't allow transfers, banned items won't have the years to keep climbing in value like they did last time.

    Conversely, what if the ban doesn't come? This is what I mean about the difficulty of timing: at what point does the PMAG hoarder decide to finally sell off his stock? And what price will people be willing to pay for his older PMAGS when there are the M revisions out, or other new items? Between the age of the mags and the cost of trying to parcel out the lot for shipping, some of these hoarders will lose money if they don't move their stock before manufacturer supply catches up with demand again. Then they'll need a ban.

  5. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark21 View Post
    Market is still there but fading. I've been watching prices trend down over the last 6 weeks.

    Yes, manufacturers have a huge backlog, but much of that is from guys like my FFL/dealer friend -- he's got 100 LMTs on order, but he only really needs 20. The other 80 were insurance, and since he doesn't have to pay for them until they ship, why not?

    I myself had at least 6 LMT uppers on order at various places. When I got what I wanted, I cancelled the ones at Quanitco, at Grant's place, etc. Nothing personal to those shops, but I just wanted to make sure that I could get one from where-ever. Now 5 LMT upper orders have "disappeared" due to my cancellations and I'm sure I'm not the only one that had multiple orders out there.

    This is what happens in every bubble. As a great business mentor of mine said -- "Billions of dollars in backlog can disappear in a single phone call. Just ask Boeing".
    Excellent point regarding the backorders and I'm sure it's been extremely prevalent. As you point out, this most likely will result in a situation where the amount of unfilled demand does not decrease in a linear manner relative to supply, but rather exponentially.

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iraqgunz View Post
    Basically he is full of shit to put it nicely. Was this a Fudd shop? Or did he just awaken from a coma? Manufacturers are still backlogged and stores still can't get enough. I thought that things would have died down but the buying frenzy is still going on as far as I can see.
    I'd say the guy is just a tool trying to sell things way over priced.
    "My craving is, and always has been, to be involved in actions conducted to ensure America remains strong, safe, and free of those who have its destruction as their goal."
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  7. #17
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    I don't believe it, but I sure wish the ammo craze would die down. Even if I could afford what I want I can't find it.

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by thespyhunter View Post
    So today I call one of the local gunshops here in Tulsa, and I am asking the guy about trading in an AR on a Kimber, and if would be best to sell the AR outright or trade it in. I already know the answer, but wanted to hear what the guy had to say. So anyway, he tells me that I would be better to sell it myself, but I knew that. Then, he tells me that the AR market is going away because nobody is buying them anymore, and I should sell it as quick as I could. He also said that alot of dealers are looking to get out of the AR market because it just isnt there.

    Is this true??!!??

    I have a hard time believing this. Also, this is coming from a shop that has been here 30+ years.
    That guy is definitely full of shit. I'd venture to say most gun store owners are former used car salesmen, uninformed about what they're selling and will say anything to get you to purchase their slow moving products. I had some store owner hawking a DPMS at me as the "end all, be all" AR, better than Colt. I'm glad to see AR prices coming down, I only wish ammo will eventually do the same.
    Last edited by RogerinTPA; 05-07-09 at 09:33.
    For God and the soldier we adore, In time of danger, not before! The danger passed, and all things righted, God is forgotten and the soldier slighted." - Rudyard Kipling

  9. #19
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    The gun store that I was in on Monday had no less the 10 AR's on the wall. Different brands with prices starting at $899. I did not look to see which brands were commanding what prices.
    Most of the folks there were looking at handguns. There was no mad rush on the black guns.


    .
    -David

    AR-15 owner/shooter since 1998

  10. #20
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    A shop here in Chandler, AZ had 2 DD M4's on the rack for $2400 each when I was in a few days ago. And S&W stripped lowers were only $299. Such bargains!

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