Will N Korea Fall?

[chadbag]

From a S. Korean newspaper

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/...020400827.html

[mr_smiles]

NK already has failed, it's simply the worlds largest labor camp.

[5pins]

I think the collapse of N Korea is inevitable. Once the great leader dies there will be a fight for power. My concern is whether the North will try and take the South down with it.

[ForTehNguyen]

they devalued their currency by a factor of 100 or 1000 last year, like pouring napalm on the fire of an economy they had

[chadbag]

I think it will fall like a house of cards, quite suddenly, such that the North govt cannot do anything to the South. It will happen too fast. Once the people realize that they have power (and from the comments in the linked article that appears to have started happening) it will mushroom very quickly.

The real question is can the south absorb the north or at least a gazillion N refugees.

Germany had to absorb the east and things were not anywhere as bad and it is stil an ongoing process there 20 years later

[The_War_Wagon]

I think it will fall like a house of cards, quite suddenly, such that the North govt cannot do anything to the South. It will happen too fast. Once the people realize that they have power (and from the comments in the linked article that appears to have started happening) it will mushroom very quickly.

The real question is can the south absorb the north or at least a gazillion N refugees.

Germany had to absorb the east and things were not anywhere as bad and it is stil an ongoing process there 20 years later

Excellent historical reference. South Korea is a strong economic engine in the far east, but I think that's the $64 question - the refugees will be a B-I-G problem.

At least, 20 years ago, Reaganomics was fueling the worldwide economic boom, and West Germany was able to put East Germans to work SOMEWHERE. In this economy, that's gonna be a whole lot tougher - even in the east, where the economy is in beter shape than ours (save for Japan).

[ThirdWatcher]

I wouldn't be surprised if North and South Korea reunited someday, once some of the prime players are gone and the US will be blamed for keeping them apart. When I served in Korea, the older folks were very anti-communist and they remembered the war. Although their military was very capable, they were glad to have the US there as a tripwire. I think that now their young people (like ours) aren't really interested in history.

[Cagemonkey]

I have a theory, though I admit it isn't based on any hard facts or evidence. I believe that N Korea is a puppet of China. Without the support of the Chinese, N korea would never had made this long. China uses N Korea as a distraction/ diversion to their own intensions. N Korea is a Chinese proxy. China won't let N Korea fail.

[GermanSynergy]

Interesting view and I agree 100%. China can play both sides of the street, playing the "good" guy by acting as an intermediary between us and NK, while egging the Norks on to stir the pot once in a while. Just my 2 cents...

I have a theory, though I admit it isn't based on any hard facts or evidence. I believe that N Korea is a puppet of China. Without the support of the Chinese, N korea would never had made this long. China uses N Korea as a distraction/ diversion to their own intensions. N Korea is a Chinese proxy. China won't let N Korea fail.

[m4fun]

No doubt North Korea is a nice buffer that can also be used create a distraction - latest intelligence public today is rockets with range to hit US in next decade(few years). This was the thought late 90s too.

I could see this going either way, but if China has their way, they will keep North Korea just where they are - isolated, indoctrinated and just fed enough to keep alive.