-Well, what we can prove for sure is there are lots of Gen1 and Gen2 one pin polymer framed 9mm Glocks that are 20+ years old being used and used hard on a regular basis today. So far they seem to be holding up just fine. A lot of them have also been exposed to the elements including constant exposure to the sun with open carry by officers and competition shooters, being stored in hot cars, and various chemical agents (not to mention questionable ones) to clean the guns.
-If for the sake of argument, worst case scenario, that polymer frames do start deteriorating after 30-50 years it would be pretty devastating to the firearms industry since practically every major handgun manufacturer today is so heavily invested and geared towards polymer framed guns.
- We know Glock frames have a certain minimum shelf life and will increase as time goes on. Same goes for other polymer frames who have been around almost as long like H&K, Walther, or even XD. But what about polymer formulas used by other manufacturers. I'm assuming they're fairly similar. But do each manufacturer have their own proprietary formula? How good is their QC or their knowledge of working with polymers? Will a relatively new polymer frame gun made by Taurus, Beretta, or the S&W M&P prove to have a shelf life as long as a Glock?
-Chemical engineers say modern polymers, the kind used for guns, will eventually compromise their structural integrity with time but its not something to be concerned within a person's lifetime or several lifetimes. In terms of human years their shelf life is almost indefinate in comparison. Theoretically of course.
-People who own "steel" or "aluminum" pistols shouldn't feel all that smug. Not all pistols will continue production, many will be discontinued as decades wear on. Most of those pistols will not likely be supported or parts will not be available/difficult to find or smiths available for major repairs. Certain handguns like the 1911 or S&W/Ruger revolvers will likely endure throughout our lifetime while most others will face obsolenscence rather quickly, and those guns will seem too dear to shoot except maybe special occasions. Will SIG Sauer have parts for a stamp steel P226 or S&W have parts for the 5906 50 years from now? I kinda doubt it. But you know the same could be said for almost any modern design including the Glock 17 since that segment of the market is overly obsessed with the "latest" and "The New".
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