EMP The Worst Case Senerio????

[500grains]

Sure, we have a lot of enemies but who in their right mind would launch an EMP attack against us?

China.

The Chinese military has a very active periodical circulation, and active duty officers write articles with various theories and proposals. One that seems to have gained traction is that in order to eventually retake Taiwan, China will have to keep the USN at a standoff distance for a couple of months. To achieve that, the published proposal was to locate and nuke any US carrier groups in the pacific, nuke the Marines on Okinawa, nuke the forces in ROK, and nuke Guam.

The author's reasoning was that the US would not be willing to risk a full scale nuclear war over Taiwan and thus to avoid nuclear strikes in the USA, the U.S. would not respond to the Pacific nuclear attacks. Personally I think the logic of the author is insane, but remarkably this concept gained widespread traction within the PLA. The civilian leadership in Beijing told those frisky PLA officers to STFU.

My point is that if military leadership could engage in such a thought process and really think the US would not respond to the nuking of carrier groups and several military bases, then they might also think that they could drop an EMP without consequences.

Looks like I will have to search ebayautos.com for a good Willys Jeep and lay in a supply of extra parts for it.

Or maybe not. In the event of 90% casualties, those who survive will not have to worry about supplies for a while. Not only will there be protein lying about all over the place, but there will be food storage and other supplies generally available with so few people competing for it.

And housing values may drop.

[zpo]

By the way, who is predicting short term casualties of 75-90% in the event of an EMP?

Not who you're asking, but-
I have heard, can't remember where now, that a study of EMP effects in America stated 90% die off after a year. Near 100% East coast, 80% mid west, thats all I remember of the break down.
Starvation and "old" diseases are the main culprit.

[Irish]

Interesting topic... I just got the book One Second After for Christmas and will be starting it this week. Thanks for the link to that other site, some interesting info there.

[Heavy Metal]

Iran's been test firing "high altitude" missles off ships for over five years now. You don't need a 'high tech' ICBM to launch even a low yield nuke over land off the east coast to cause 1/2 the country to be off the grid for over a year. Experts have said that in such a senerio, we would NOT know who attacked us, and they know this. No scorched earth for them, and that's why we should bene concerned.

A low-yield nuke would not do it. You need a multi-megaton Teller-Ulam device and one small enough to be launched to a sufficient altitude, something currently well beyond the Iranians.

[Heavy Metal]

MarshallDodge- Google the E3 effects of EMP, thats the transformer killer.

pilotguyo540- Thats the timeframe for the 100 ton and larger transformers on power stations and sub stations, not the little ones on poles. And the large ones are no longer made in this country, globalization.

Bullshit, they make them 40 miles from where I live at the ABB factory. I have an old school friend who is a shift manager there.

[zpo]

Huh, what company?

NM, http://www.abb.com/ This one? Their products look to be industrial, like factories and airports. Any more info?

ABB's site links to press reports that state-
Bland, Albany, build "small" transformers, for industrial apps like factories and airports. South Boston builds small transformers that are city and big industry sized.

I haven't found what size the St. Louis plant builds, all the news reports are about a shooting over 401 k lawsuit.

What size (MVA) do they build near you, Heavy Metal?

[1776 Patriot]

A low-yield nuke would not do it. You need a multi-megaton Teller-Ulam device and one small enough to be launched to a sufficient altitude, something currently well beyond the Iranians.

That's NOT true. You should read the EMP commissions report. It states even a 1 megaton Nuke would do it, although you would get better results with a higher yield weapon, it's not needed to take down the grid for a L O N G time. Also, I guess you don't know about the high altitude 3 stage Shabab 3 missles Iran has been firing off ships for over 5 years now?? In fact, our friend Hugo Chavez has recently bought some from Iran. Feel any safer now? The Soviets have been testing EMP nukes for YEARS and know exactly what it takes and in fact even threatend us(2006) with an EMP attack. That info came from one of our own representitives (Roscoe Bartlet) who were at a conference overseas when threatend by 2 Russian military representitives. You can hear this yourself at: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/empact-radio Like I said, been doing LOTS of research and this info isn't just 'hearsay'. Hope this helps.

[1776 Patriot]

Bullshit, they make them 40 miles from where I live at the ABB factory. I have an old school friend who is a shift manager there.

Even if this were true, how they going to manufacture them with NO POWER?? Who is going to stay there and make them even if they did have power when the world around them is in total chaos??

[SuperiorDG]

Not who you're asking, but-
I have heard, can't remember where now, that a study of EMP effects in America stated 90% die off after a year. Near 100% East coast, 80% mid west, thats all I remember of the break down.
Starvation and "old" diseases are the main culprit.

Its in the book "One Second After."

[RogerinTPA]

I worry more about economic collapse through redistributive wealth schemes (Obama Care, Cap & Trade/Tax, Climate Change, Etc...), over spending, Amnesty for Illegals, Funding for Illegals for free education (Oh yeah, been shot down) and border security, then I ever would for EMP.