What did you do Today to Prepare?

[RetroRevolver77]

Delete.

[_Stormin_]

So, the above is a fantastic example of simple math, and not at all how epidemiology works.

Lets ignore the fact that your first percentage based calculation to determine US cases in 30 days yields a number of US cases greater than the entire current population of the US...

You have to fix several flawed assumptions, but here are a couple big ones.
You're assuming our case count is accurate. It's not. Plenty of people in Jan/Feb "had a crummy cold or the flu," lived through it just fine, and actually survived COVID-19. Unless we antibody test every man, woman, and child in America, we will never know the true extent of the infection.
You're assuming that initial fatality rates continue at the same rate. As is almost always the case in communal medical conditions, those more susceptible to the condition are often the first to pass from it, yielding an early spike in the rate that gradually descends. Even if this is ten time more fatal than the worst flu seasons, you're talking about 3 million possible deaths. Not almost eighty four million.

Truly, you should be far more worried about the economic damage being done, than the virus itself, if you're a healthy American under the age of 60 and not living in a very dense urban population center (where the hospital system may not have the capacity to treat you).

This is a serious virus, and not something to be taken lightly, but nowhere near the level of scary that your math above would indicate. We won't see those numbers worldwide. Let alone in the US.

[RetroRevolver77]

Delete.

[_Stormin_]

Again, that's not how epidemiology works... I could shout at the wall about this, but the fact that you have calculated a percentage convinces you that the concept is correct. It isn't.

[thopkins22]

You're assuming our case count is accurate. It's not. Plenty of people in Jan/Feb "had a crummy cold or the flu," lived through it just fine, and actually survived COVID-19. Unless we antibody test every man, woman, and child in America, we will never know the true extent of the infection.
You're assuming that initial fatality rates continue at the same rate. As is almost always the case in communal medical conditions, those more susceptible to the condition are often the first to pass from it, yielding an early spike in the rate that gradually descends.

The problem is that hospitals weren't being overrun with people in January and February. We know for a fact that it was not in the United States in large numbers then, because people weren't dying from it...and as you said, the weakest often show up with it first.

I agree generally with the rest of what you said. Though those of us under 60 need to be damned careful...a lot of people under 60 without comorbidities are dying at this very moment.

[Arik]

Again, that's not how epidemiology works... I could shout at the wall about this, but the fact that you have calculated a percentage convinces you that the concept is correct. It isn't.

Dude.... flying AIDS! That's all I gotta say. We'll be lucky if it's only v24.something percent CFR!

[RetroRevolver77]

Delete.

[Evel Baldgui]

Changed my cardio routine, cycling alternate days with long walks/hikes, 4-5 mile jaunts alternating with 15-18 mile bike rides, 6 days/week..... love south florida :-)
Gyms closed so doing weights limited to whats in garage, lots of 25 lb barbell reps and some resistance bands ....all I got.

[gaijin]

Checked zero on a truck gun (rides in security vault) for first time in 2 years. Felt it was prudent.
Held zero, no issues. <1.5”/5 rds benched. More than adequate for purpose.

BCM 14.5” P/W, ADM QD Mount, Steiner 1-4x, 64 gr. G.D.
This speaks well for the parts.

[drsal]

Started cycling more with my wife who now works from home. Her former 1.5 hr commute turned into a 5 day/week 1.5 hr bike ride !