(COVID/ETC CONTENT HERE) China Locks Down 11 Million in Wuhan,

**hotrodder636** · 03-31-20, 07:53

So we ended up getting letters from the Attorney General on the official letter head. Have to have it and our PIV on us at all times in the case a true lockdown occurs. It was also given to state attorneys to share with LEOs.

Originally Posted by Coal Dragger

I’ll bet you will if your state of residence goes full retard. We operate in a lot of states, so the company is trying to get ahead of it.

**hotrodder636** · 03-31-20, 07:54

Anyone read about this or find the timeliness of this ‘study’ ironic?

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/

**Grand58742** · 03-31-20, 08:46

Compare and contrast the "reporting" done on the response.

One headline:

170 Ventilators Shipped To California Didn’t Work, But Instead Of Blaming Trump, Governor Had Them Fixed

https://www.dailywire.com/news/170-v...had-them-fixed

To this:

California governor: 170 ventilators sent from Trump administration were 'not working'

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-w...ed-not-working

This is why people don't trust the media to give them good information. Provided the articles pretty much say the same thing, but when one makes sure you see the President's name in the headline, you can't say there isn't bias in the reporting.

**Grand58742** · 03-31-20, 09:08

Anyone ever hear of the old saying "shoot one, train a thousand"? I've been very impressed by the way the market and private sector has picked up manufacturing items for the CV response. Clothing and apparel manufacturers have taken up making masks, gowns and whatnot. Industries are starting to retool to make ventilators. I'm sure there's plenty of others that are doing their part in making sure supplies are flowing. It took a few days to spin up, but it's finally going.

However, before that, GM decided to start squawking about the elevated prices for making ventilators and it's cost would be around $1 billion. The Federal side negotiated with them, but eventually POTUS invoked the Defense Production Act and told them to make them pretty much at cost.

I'm not a fan at all of nationalized industries nor am I of the Federal side determining what a private company can or should make. In this case, we do have a needed item (regardless if it could or should have been manufactured before this year) and you had other companies like Ford, GE and Tesla jumping on the manufacturing train and not haggling over price. I understand a company's will to make a profit during these times but maybe not so much profit to show your greed?

Anyhow, I do suspect Trump did not want to have to invoke the DPA in order to get what we needed and wanted the free market to respond accordingly without having to put it into play. But when he had to, he "shot the one" to show it wasn't an empty threat and the rest fell into line. "Oh shit, he's serious..."

Now all the sudden we have dozens of companies churning out what we need. Will they still profit? Probably so as the market needs these items right now and there is probably a little overhead built into the price. Are they going to get greedy? Doubtful as more competition for the items should drive and keep prices lower. More options for the same high demand items, less chance of a sole source being able to charge what they want. I'd say some started making them because of market driven demands. Others are doing it because they feel it's their "civic duty" for lack of a better term. But I'd bet each company will make a tidy profit from the items they are producing for the CV response.

**chuckman** · 03-31-20, 09:09

Originally Posted by hotrodder636

Anyone read about this or find the timeliness of this ‘study’ ironic?

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/

They (and other places) do these 'tabletops' every year. It's mostly academic masturbation, and no planning.

**Warg** · 03-31-20, 09:20

Originally Posted by chuckman

They (and other places) do these 'tabletops' every year. It's mostly academic masturbation, and no planning.

Agreed. Gates had done numerous talks on pandemics over the years as well, one is a TED talk I think.

**Alpha-17** · 03-31-20, 09:29

Sorry if this is a repost, I saw discussion on the service, but not on this:

https://www.fox13news.com/news/tampa...LbooLGoCO7e2qw

Tampa megachurch pastor arrested after leading packed services despite 'safer-at-home' orders

By Haley Hinds

TAMPA, Fla. - The pastor of a Tampa megachurch is facing charges after refusing to close its doors despite a "safer at home" order in effect in Hillsborough County, meant to stop the spread of COVID-19. The sheriff says up to 500 people were in attendance at Pastor Rodney Howard-Browne's Sunday services.

Howard-Browne, 58, turned himself in Monday afternoon after Sheriff Chad Chronister and State Attorney Andrew Warren on Monday announced an arrest warrant had been issued for charges of unlawful assembly and violating public health emergency rules of isolation and quarantine. Howard-Browne was released 40 minutes later after posting a $500 bond.

The River at Tampa Bay Church held two services Sunday, Chronister said, and even offered bus transportation for those services. The church's live stream showed a packed crowd cheering and applauding.

Friday, Sheriff Chronister said, deputies had tried to speak to Howard-Browne on at least two separate occasions about the "dangerous environment" the church was creating. He said HCSO command staff went to the east Tampa church, but they were advised by church leaders and legal staff that Howard-Browne was refusing to see them and also refusing to cancel the Sunday church services.

"His reckless disregard for human life put hundreds of people in his congregation at risk and thousands of residents who may interact with them this week in danger," Sheriff Chad Chronister said at a press conference Monday afternoon. "They have access to technology allowing them to live stream their services over the internet and broadcast to their 400 members from the safety of their own homes, but instead they chose to gather at church.”

Chronister stressed that the warrant was not an attack on religious freedom and noted there are other Tampa Bay-area churches who are following the social distancing guidelines set by the CDC. He said his concern now is whether the novel coronavirus may spread following the crowded services.

"I was appalled and also frightened at the fact that those individuals [were] thinking and believing they are doing the right thing. How many people are they going to infect if they have COVID-19?" Chronister asked. "There is nothing more important than faith especially during a pandemic, but like every other church here in the Bay Area, do it responsibly."

“I think it’s unfortunate that the pastor here is hiding behind the First Amendment," State Attorney Warren offered. "One, it’s absolutely clear that emergency orders like this are constitutional and valid. Second of all, leaders from our faith-based community across this country have embraced the importance of social distancing.”

Texas-based First Liberty Institute, which defends religious freedom, sees gathering restrictions in a different light.

"This is a hard adjustment for people to make but I think we have to make that adjustment," said Jeremy Dys, First Liberty Institute's Special Counsel for Litigation and Communications. "The state has to have a compelling justification, a compelling reason to say we are going to ask people of a certain size or gathering to stop meeting for a period of time temporarily."

Dys said the key is that the restrictions are only enforced temporarily and that religious institutions are not unfairly targeted. First Liberty Institute is encouraging religious leaders to continue finding creative ways to serve their communities online, in small groups, or drive-thru-type events.

"Let's figure out the best way we can go and work together to preserve religious liberty on the one side but also maintain the public health on the other side of things," Dys said. "Those two can work together. They don't have to work apart."

During Chronister’s announcement of the arrest warrant, other leaders from local churches also joined him. Pastor Ken Whitten from Idlewild Baptist Church pointed out that quarantining is mentioned in the Bible.

"It was practiced by people," he said. "The issue here is not religious freedom. Churches are not the ones being singled out. Everything is shut down. There is no basketball. There is no hockey. All of us our doing our part. I'm a pastor that believes God heals…this is not a faith issue. This is a responsible friend issue."

Reverend Thomas Scott of 34th Street Church, a former chairman of the Board of County Commissioners and Tampa City Council member, said his church began streaming online and on Facebook.

"We value the importance of the laws of the land and we value the importance of social distancing, and more importantly, protecting our parishioners -- make sure they are not in harm's way and spreading this deadly disease throughout the community," he said. " To us, COVID-19 and social distancing is very important. It's also important for the religious community to govern themselves, according to the laws of the land."

Chronister and Warren also appealed to River parishioners, asking them not to gather in their pastor's absence. The state attorney even quoted Mark 12:31 in making his point.

“There is no more important commandment than to love thy neighbor as thyself,” Warren preached. “Loving thy neighbors is protecting them, not jeopardizing their health by exposing them to this deadly virus.”

On Sunday, Howard-Browne defended his decision to keep the church open in a video posted to his YouTube channel, claiming the building had the technology to eradicate any virus.

"We brought in 13 machines that basically kill every virus in the place," Howard-Browne said. "If they sneeze it shoots it down like at 100 miles per hour and it will neutralize it in a split second."

The church also wrote the following statement on their website:

"We feel that it would be wrong for us to close our doors on them, at this time, or any time. In a time of crisis, people are fearful and in need of comfort and community."

Howard-Browne’s attorney took issue with the Hillsborough County “safer at home” order and the charges brought against his client, adding the county allows companies like Amazon to operate while shutting down churches.

“Not only did the church comply with the administrative order regarding six-foot distancing, it went above and beyond any other business to ensure the health and safety of the people," insisted Liberty Counsel founder and chairman Mat Staver. "Contrary to Sheriff Chronister’s allegation that Pastor Howard-Browne was ‘reckless,'” the actions of Hillsborough Country and the Hernando County Sheriff are discriminatory against religion and church gatherings.”

Liberty Counsel, a non-profit organization, maintains the church had hand sanitizer readily available, 6-foot separations marked on the floor for family groups, and staff members wearing gloves.

“This church has a concern, not only for the physical wellbeing of its participants and the community but also the spiritual wellbeing and that's what this church has been trying to do," Staver said. "They bought $100,000 worth of hospital-grade equipment they have established throughout the church that kills microbes including in the family of the coronavirus."

Staver said the arrest is discriminatory and the county's order is being unconstitutionally applied to the church.

"You cannot look at this situation and say it's being evenly enforced across the board to these other businesses," Staver said.

We asked Staver whether the church had any plans for future services following Monday's arrest. Staver said he's still working with the pastor to plan their next steps.

Hot Take: This is blatantly unconstitutional. Yeah, they should have stayed home, and not risk spreading the virus. There are other options for spreading the word, and fellowship could still be had by organizing small groups. That said, it's still not justification for a direct violation of the First Amendment. The Consitution can not and should not be thrown out the window every time there's an emergency, or there really are no limits on government. I don't know or care about the policies of this mega-church or pastor. Honestly, he could be as crooked as a dog's hind leg, and it wouldn't matter. This is still a clear and direct violation of the free exercise clause.

Sadly, I can't say I'm surprised by this. It's only a matter of time til we get another Waco out of this because not everyone will go quietly. This is the kind of overreach I've been worried about since before the initial restrictions were put in place. The number of people who are bootlicking over this is alarming, especially the ones that'll do so because of their hostility towards religion.

**Warg** · 03-31-20, 09:53

CNN published a story this AM on updated COVID-19 "death rate" estimates.

"How many people die after being infected with the novel coronavirus? Fewer than previously calculated, according to a study released Monday, but still more than die from the flu.

The research, published in the medical journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases, estimated that about 0.66% of those infected with the virus will die.

That coronavirus death rate, which is lower than earlier estimates, takes into account potentially milder cases that often go undiagnosed -- but it's still far higher than the 0.1% of people who are killed by the flu.
When undetected infections aren't taken into account, the Lancet study found that the coronavirus death rate was 1.38%, which is more consistent with earlier reports..."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/healt...ate/index.html

CNN does a poor job in clarifying the the difference between case fatality rates and infection mortality rates. The numbers we have been seeing are primarily case fatality rates which are those confirmed to have been diagnosed with COVID-19 and have died/those confirmed to have COVID-19 (usually in a hospital setting). The infection mortality rates are those who those confirmed to have COVID-19 and have died/those infected with COVID-19 (but not necessarily confirmed diagnosis). The latter is quite a SWAG for obvious reasons.

The study is from The Lancet Infectious Diseases and can be accessed here: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...243-7/fulltext

This is a peer-reviewed study that at least employed age-adjusted estimates for their work. Key findings to note is that the crude, i.e., non age-adjusted, CFR of 3.67% is attenuated to 1.38% (95% CI of 1.23-1.53) and that their age-adjusted infection mortality rate is estimated to be 0.66% (95% CI of 0.39-1.33).

Please pay attention to the 95% confidence interval estimates rather than focusing on the point estimate (e.g., 0.66% vs the 95% confidence interval estimate of 0.39% to 1.33%). For those unfamiliar with confidence intervals, a very basic definition is that these are statistical estimates that provide a range of values that are xx% likely to include an unknown population parameter estimate.

As Ramairthree stated earlier, there's lots of kindergarten math being done on these CFR estimates as well as with the disease propagation models. Without going into too much detail, investigators should employ better dynamic probability models (e.g., at a very basic level markov models or, even better, discretely integrated condition event, a.k.a., DICE models) using updated data inputs and interval estimates for inputs and outputs where possible.

**Business_Casual** · 03-31-20, 09:54

However, before that, GM decided to start squawking about the elevated prices for making ventilators and it's cost would be around $1 billion. The Federal side negotiated with them, but eventually POTUS invoked the Defense Production Act and told them to make them pretty much at cost.

Remember Obama bailed out GM, the execs there are probably still holdovers from the US ownership period.