Originally Posted by
SomeOtherGuy
My crystal ball is old and cloudy. There are a million possible scenarios and you could spend a weekend discussing nothing else.
I don't foresee a widespread civil war, although it's possible, nor do I expect it to be slow. I would look at the 1989-1991 era for some guidance.
I expect that one large state with a strong-man type governor will announce its departure after some national political event it doesn't like. This could be California if Trump gets re-elected, or Texas or Florida for numerous reasons. The lead state will be followed in days by neighboring states that are close in mind - OR, WA and HI for CA, or part of the gulf coast plus maybe SC in the case of TX or FL being the lead. National politicians will threaten war against them (as Biden and others, like that disgusting CA congressman, have already done), but little or nothing will actually happen. There will be weeks or more of awkward pause, then other states, both aligned and polar-opposite to the lead, will start making their departures too.
Look at a map of "red states" and figure that alliances will generally require proximity. Most likely the deep south and great plains would make one alliance, the pacific coast (excluding rural, inland parts of those states) would make one, and the core union centered around NY would make a third. The inland northwest around Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah and neighboring portions of states might do its own thing or join the Texas-FL-gulf-plains bloc. States not mentioned could go multiple ways, including totally independent or additional blocs. New Mexico might just join Mexico, formally or de facto. The midwest and mid-atlantic would be the greatest mess given the "purple" nature of many states and the extreme disagreement in many of those states between the largest city and 99% of the rural areas.
Just one possibility, who knows.
This is exactly how I see it. The only "war" will be internal to states where densely populated blue cities are surrounded by red rural area. The fight will be over which side to join as the cities and rural areas will want to join opposing factions. That will play out fairly straight forward though will be messy. The rural areas will oust the leaders of the blue cities who's protectors usually live in the rural red areas anyway. The people in the blue cities will fall in line or flee. This will most likely include states like TN, KY, NC, GA, possibly VA, PA, and OH. NC, GA and VA may be the fastest to have their cities taken over due to the large contingent of mostly conservative military personal but that's just a guess.
I am part of that power which eternally wills evil, and eternally works good.
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