Originally Posted by
Warg
I completely agree with you. I think scientists often fail with responsibly communicating their findings to the media and, in this case, interacting with policymakers. Any work around modeling is particularly suspect and needs to be reinforced as just that- a model with a wide variability of inputs and outputs and one that needs to be updated regularly as new data emerge. And, after all of that, it's still a model. It seems like many focused on the numbers with this particular work rather than the authors conclusions that were primarily focused on epidemic suppression through interventions to flatten the curve.
I would think the architect/scientist analogy in this case would be more akin to drafting scaleable set of plans for a structure between x and y square footage (or volume), with inputs and outputs of varying electrical demand, HVAC, plumbing, sewage, etc. Maybe that's a poor analogy?
At any rate, this type of work and the resulting uncertainty is one of the reasons I'm an epidemiologist working in oncology rather than infectious disease.
I understand that it is difficult to nail down a number due to the numbers of variable. Releasing a study which has a range of a couple million to several thousand just seems half baked and irresponsible.
Originally Posted by
ramairthree
I detest irresponsible and in accurate Science, especially when done to drive an agenda.
But to be fair, you practice a Newtonian profession, lacking the artistic talent to be a true artist, and the math ability to be an engineer...
(Ok, just parroting some jokes, back to the point)
Architects exist because Engineers need babysitters.
Originally Posted by
pinzgauer
Ask an architect (or engineer) to predict exactly what the energy use of a building will be and the answer will be "it depends". As it does, on many factors in the model, local weather, people load, movement working hours, etc.
If a client asked me such a question I would tell them there is no answer, rather than giving them a BS answer of 5kWh to 5000kWh. See where I am going with this? If your range is so wide, maybe just STFU and don't pipe up until you have more information to give a correct answer.
I am part of that power which eternally wills evil, and eternally works good.
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